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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 13

Buffalo Bills 7 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle to DET 12 for 1 yard (91-A.Robinson). FUMBLES (91-A.Robinson), recovered by BUF-72-R.Groy at DET 13.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.18 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 13, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model