Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 80

Detroit Lions 13 – Buffalo Bills 7

(11:53) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to BUF 38, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 39 for 1 yard (17-A.Jones, 47-T.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.83 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model