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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 30

Detroit Lions 13 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.05 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model