4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 14 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 8-M.Darr punts 42 yards to DET 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 13-T.Jones pushed ob at DET 30 for 12 yards (69-R.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.13 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 19, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model