Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 67

Detroit Lions 13 – Buffalo Bills 14

(2:56) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to BUF 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.29 EP
61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model