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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 14 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 17-J.Allen up the middle to DET 39 for 2 yards (97-R.Jean Francois).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.80 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model