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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 50

Detroit Lions 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to BUF 14, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.62 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP