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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 6

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 3-W.Lutz 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.02 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP