Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 6

(6:54) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to NO 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 23 for 13 yards (55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.77 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model