Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 85

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to NO 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 34 for -1 yards (56-J.Carter; 42-C.Jones). PENALTY on NO-32-J.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.49 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model