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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 6 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to CAR 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-34-J.Hardee, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.66 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -1.79 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model