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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 9 – New Orleans Saints 12

What Actually Happened

(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 80-I.Thomas [56-D.Davis].

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.73 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -0.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model