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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CAR 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.47 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP