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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 74-C.Clark reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey pass short right to 82-C.Manhertz for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model