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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 28

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model