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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:53) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NO 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP