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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 6-J.Hekker punts 65 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 24 for 13 yards (53-J.Lawler).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model