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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:38) (Shotgun) 33-J.Adams up the middle to LA 49 for no gain (58-C.Littleton; 43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model