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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model