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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.16 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 18, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model