Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 30

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 11-K.Hodge to LA 37 for 7 yards (34-C.LeBlanc). Philadelphia challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete short right to 11-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

What Happened

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model