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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 30

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.44 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model