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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 30 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to LA 16, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.73 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model