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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 30 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model