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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 6 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to SF 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-23-N.Thorpe.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.40 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model