Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 13 – San Francisco 49ers 17

(13:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to SF 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 30 for 11 yards (28-J.Coleman, 69-T.Ott).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model