Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Seattle Seahawks 13

(10:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-40-C.Holba, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.04 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model