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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model