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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 20 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model