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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 23 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.61 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model