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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 6 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to SF 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.23 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP