4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.53 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 15, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model