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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 12

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model