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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 49

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP