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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 65

Chicago Bears 14 – San Francisco 49ers 9

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to CHI 37 for 2 yards (48-F.Warner).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model