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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 9 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Goodwin.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.95 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model