4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 19

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 1-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.23 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model