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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 79

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to SF 37, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model