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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 45

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 3-C.Wadman punts 34 yards to LV 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model