Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 3-C.Wadman punts 65 yards to LV 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.30 EP
67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model