Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 75

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

(9:36) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to LV 25, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris to LV 32 for 7 yards (47-J.Jewell, 43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model