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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 5-J.Townsend punts 43 yards to DEN 18, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model