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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 5-J.Townsend punts 47 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.03 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model