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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 48

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 3-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.89 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP