Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 91

Denver Broncos 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Harris at DEN 39. 25-E.Harris to DEN 18 for 21 yards (72-G.Bolles).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.87 EP
71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 91, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.60 EP