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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 85

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 5-J.Townsend punts 64 yards to DEN 21, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-83-D.Waller.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 43, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model