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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 55

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 3-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model