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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 54

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum to DEN 40 for -6 yards (50-N.Morrow). FUMBLES (50-N.Morrow), recovered by DEN-30-P.Lindsay at DEN 42. 30-P.Lindsay ran ob at LV 47 for 11 yards (25-E.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model