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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 36
New York Jets 7 – Green Bay Packers 0
What Actually Happened
(9:45) 14-S.Darnold left guard to GB 33 for 3 yards (27-J.Jones).
The Three Options
GO
+1.79 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.74 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.83 EP
KICK
+0.06 EP
- 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
- 39% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
