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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 28

New York Jets 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.51 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model